EUR/USD -Can Expect a Bearish Breakout Happening for the Pair

April 4, 2023
Signals & Technical Analysis

Short Position

Take Profit: 1.0717
Stop Loss: 1.0925
Timeline: 1-2 days

Long Position

Buy Stop: 1.0880
Take Profit: 1.0950
Stop Loss: 1.0765

The pair made a significant comeback in the month of March. Prior to that, it had dropped to a multi-month low of 1.0523, but it was able to recover and reach 1.0928, reaching its highest price level since February 23. On 4H charts, the pair initially climbed to the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level but then fell back to the 61.8% retracement level. Moreover, the pair formed a double-top pattern at 1.0921 with a neckline that reached 1.0717. The pair is sitting just below the Murrey Math Lines’ strong pivot and reverse point, while the RSI has moved slightly below the neutral point. So, judging from the double-top pattern, we can expect a bearish breakout happening for the pair.

The pair has been experiencing a sell-off since Friday, and it has continued with the dip to 1.0850, which is also the pair’s lowest price since Thursday and is 0.80% below the highest price reached in March. It appears that the banking crisis and the ECB’s rate increases are to thank for the price spike in March. With its hawkish tone in an effort to lower the high inflation, the ECB has overtaken Fed in this regard.The manufacturing and service PMI numbers from S&P Global’s data releases for the US and EU should be watched as they may affect the pair price. As we have received the estimates for the same last month, the impact will be minimal. Another key event to pay attention to, would be the US NFP data release happening this week.

Author Amsterdam