Forex News for 6 March, 2023
Amsterdam
March 6, 2023
- On March 7th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to increase its interest rate to a decade-high of 3.6% by 25 basis points, and may consider additional hikes in the future if similar sentiments to February persist in the March statement.
- Although the markets are looking for indications of hawkishness in Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy report on March 7th, he is unlikely to commit to a definite policy path before the release of U.S. labor and inflation data.
- Following a record pace of 425 basis point increases in the past ten months, the Bank of Canada (BOC) is expected to keep its interest rates at 4.5% on March 8th.
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is predicted to maintain its ultra-loose policies, including interest rates and yield curve controls, in its policy update on March 10th.
- On March 10th, the non-farm payrolls in the U.S. are expected to surpass the 200K mark, while the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are expected to remain stable at 3.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
- Due to a persistently low initial jobless claims trend and upside surprises in the business employment indices, analysts forecast more positive U.S. labor data this week.
- On March 10th, the ADP report is expected to show a gain of 195K, while JOLTS job openings may decrease from 11.01M to 10.61M, potentially limiting NFP speculation.
- If the NFP report remains strong, the Fed may have more flexibility to increase interest rates higher than expected or maintain high levels for a longer period.
- The AUD/USD pair is encountering difficulty in breaking below the psychological .6700 level, and the 100 SMA appears poised to cross above the 200 SMA on the daily timeframe.
- Depending on market expectations and risk-taking behavior, the AUD/USD pair may rebound from current levels and revisit previous areas of interest, or break through the .6700 support and fall to prior support levels of .6600 or .6550.
